Yesterday, a Thai guy claimed that Cambodia would surrender if Thailand stopped exporting petroleum products to Cambodia for a couple of months. It was a bold and provocative statement, but could that really happen, and how bad would it be?
Let’s break it down into three insights:
1. Cambodia Depends on Imported Petroleum, But Not Only from Thailand:
It’s true that Cambodia doesn’t have its own oil refinery and relies heavily on imports. As noted by Mr. Casey Barnett, Cambodia’s fuel needs are met by a mix of suppliers: Thailand, Vietnam, Singapore, Indonesia, and others. While Thailand is a major exporter, it is not the only one. According to the General Department of Customs and Excise of Cambodia, in 2024, Cambodia was fueled almost equally by Thailand and Vietnam, each accounting for 29%. This raises the question: would Thailand actually stop exporting oil to Cambodia?
2. Thailand Has More to Lose Than Gain:
While anything is possible in international politics, a full oil export ban from Thailand would likely be a last-resort move or in other words, a must-act scenario where Thailand has no other choice. The economic cost to Thai businesses would be high, and the diplomatic fallout even greater, especially in front of ASEAN. Thailand, as a founding ASEAN member, is expected to uphold key norms: peaceful dispute resolution, non-confrontation, and regional economic cooperation. Violating these would harm Thailand’s reputation more than it would hurting Cambodia’s economy. The major diplomatic loss would be the erosion of trust in Thailand from its neighbors and other partner countries.
3. Cambodia Will Struggle, But Won’t Surrender:
Yes, without Thai petroleum would a pain, but Cambodia will survive. Cambodia has proven adaptable. The gap could be quickly filled by increased imports from Vietnam, China, or other partners. Just last week, Cambodia cut off Thai internet services, despite knowing the potential backlash because we believed it was necessary. The point is: Cambodia doesn’t want to back down from a bully.
It’s also worth noting that the person who made the oil threat is a normal person. Mr Kraisiwat Kasemsri, holds no real power, just a loud voice with little understanding of the consequences. Escalating tensions with careless words is dangerous and irresponsible. He wants to heat up the tensions and accidentally became one of the people who proposed bad ideas that caused economic losses to Thailand, such as the cases of electricity and internet services. But let’s also remember, Cambodia is no longer the underdog, and Cambodia is punching above its weight. In 2025, Cambodia is not the ones being bullied, and ready to defend dignity and sovereignty.
Author: DeNotoriousONE